A few weeks later than expected, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimate of U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025. The figure came in below expectations, mainly because the government shutdown had a larger‑than‑anticipated impact on the direct contribution of public spending. Otherwise, the release confirmed several ongoing trends, including the very strong concentration of investment in areas tied to artificial intelligence, while residential investment is down 3.7% year‑over‑year.
The chart below shows that the positive contribution from nonresidential investment comes entirely from the three AI‑related components (data centers, IT equipment, and software). All other categories of investment have been on a downward trend for nearly two years.
Our analysis
These trends are set to continue in early 2026. In their latest quarterly results, hyperscalers once again increased their investment plans for the year. Beyond that, business‑investment surveys are better than their 2025 average, though still at fairly low levels.
These figures show how solid headline numbers can mask very uneven underlying dynamics. It is also worth keeping in mind that the strong contribution from AI‑related investment has come alongside a sharp increase in imported equipment, which dampens the overall impact on economic growth.
Written on February 27, 2026. Opinions subject to change. This document has no pre-contractual or contractual value. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and/or descriptions contained in this document should not be considered as advice or recommendations from Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities, nor does it encourage investment. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS - 352 213 599 RCS Paris 25, RUE DE COURCELLES - 75008 PARIS
