The end of the U.S. government shutdown has allowed the gradual resumption of economic data releases. September’s employment report, originally scheduled for early October, was finally published on November 20. October’s report will be incomplete and is therefore set for release on December 16, alongside November’s figures, which were initially due on December 5.
Weekly jobless claims are also being published again. During the shutdown, they could still be estimated from underlying data collected by individual states. These estimates proved highly accurate, confirming that weekly claims have recently remained in the range of 210,000 to 230,000.
Our analysis
The October Challenger survey reported a sharp increase in layoffs. However, similar spikes have occurred in the past without signaling the start of a new cycle. Employment-related indicators from business surveys also show no signs of sudden weakness.
Weekly jobless claims will need to be watched closely in the weeks ahead, but for now the numbers remain reassuring.
Written on November 28, 2025. Opinions subject to change. This document has no pre-contractual or contractual value. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and/or descriptions contained in this document should not be considered as advice or recommendations from Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities, nor does it encourage investment. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS - 352 213 599 RCS Paris 25, RUE DE COURCELLES - 75008 PARIS
