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In December, a few days after the Fed's last meeting, the Q3 GDP figures were published, confirming robust growth (+4.3%) just before the government shutdown began.
The U.S. economy is expanding at a more moderate pace than in recent years—1.5% in H1 2025—but has managed to withstand two major shocks in 2025. The first came in the spring with the introduction of tariffs.
During the summer, US and European interest rates started to diverge. In the US, short-term rates dropped due to clear signs of a weakening job market, including fewer new jobs being created and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. These developments led Jerome Powell to open the door to a possible rate cut during the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.
On February 20, the US Supreme Court struck down a large share of the tariff increases introduced in 2025, ruling that the law did not give the administration the authority to impose such measures.
Le mois de septembre aura confirmé le ralentissement du marché de l’emploi aux Etats-Unis.
In the United States, sovereign rates remained broadly stable in November, with the 2-year yield ranging between 3.45% and 3.60% and the 10-year yield between 3.96% and 4.16%. Economic data was mixed: job creation exceeded expectations, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance on potential rate cuts, while markets anticipate a new 25bps rate cut by early 2026.
Paris, 25 September 2025 – Lazard Frères Gestion announces new appointments to its Private Banking teams in France and internationally. Four new Private Bankers are joining the firm.
Aux États-Unis, les taux souverains sont restés globalement stables, le 2 ans évoluant entre 3,43% et 3,58%, et le 10 ans proche de 4,00%.
The U.S. government has been in shutdown since October 1. In general, such events pose only a moderate risk to economic growth — estimated at about -0.1% of GDP per week — since the frozen expenditures represent only a fraction of the federal budget (6.4% of GDP).
In the United States , the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps (now ranging from 3.50% to 3.75% ) on December 10, following a 9-3 vote.
Since trade tensions eased in April 2025, the Japanese stock market has been experiencing strong momentum. The Topix has repeatedly surpassed its all-time high since the summer, currently trading around 3,300 points after a low of 2,243 points on April 7.
The euro investment grade primary market has been particularly upbeat so far this year. Excluding financial institutions and property companies, year-to-date gross corporate issuance at the end of March stood at €97 billion, according to Barclays data.
The Federal Reserve publishes weekly data on loans issued by banking institutions. The credit boom between 2020 and 2022 gave way to a contraction at the end of 2023, which is generally a negative signal for the US economy.
The ECB recently published data on bank loans in the Eurozone as of the end of 2024. This data confirms a gradual rebound in credit volumes issued by the banking sector, both to households (+1.1% year-over-year) and to businesses (+1.5% year-over-year). This recovery follows a halt in lending between 2022 and 2023 due to rising interest rates.
All segments of the euro‑area bond market delivered positive returns in 2025, extending the trends seen in 2023 and 2024. Once again, high‑yield segments stood out (+5.22% for High Yield, +8.72% for AT1), supported by both strong carry and a slight tightening of risk premia, despite a turbulent start to the year driven by trade tensions.
In 2024, sector performance within European equities diverged considerably. A gap of almost 40 percentage points separates underperformance in food & beverage and automobile stocks (-12% each) and the standout performance by banks (+26%).
Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, European banks’ earnings prospects through to 2027 look healthy according to recent data from Bank of America. In 2025, analysts expect earnings to dip slightly compared with 2024. In 2026 and 2027, banks are expected to report earnings growth.
With an average of two executive orders per working day, the U.S. administration is moving full steam ahead with implementing its agenda.
In 2024, European bonds delivered positive performance across the board. Higher yielding securities stood out, fuelled by a combination of high carry and compressing risk premia. Corporate high yield gained 8.46% on average and endured only moderate volatility, while European €AT1s rallied 14.26%.
Most Asian economies have now released their fourth‑quarter growth figures, apart from India, which will report on February 27. Overall, the results beat expectations.
Après des années de stagnation, l'appareil productif outre-Rhin pourrait amorcer un virage décisif. Les chiffres publiés pour novembre 2025 révèlent un rebond des commandes industrielles de +5,6% par rapport à octobre.
The banking sector has experienced significant growth in the stock market, with the Euro Stoxx Banks index up 39.46% YTD as of July 3, excluding the effect of reinvested dividends.
To invest their excess liquidity (customer deposits) and maintain their Net Interest Income (NII), commercial banks in the Eurozone have significantly increased their bond purchases in financial markets since 2021.
The French national statistics office (INSEE) released its October business confidence indicators this week. The data are based on responses collected between September 26 and October 20, mostly before October 10 — in other words, during the brief period when Sébastien Lecornu’s first government was being formed, and then quickly collapsed.
Japan enters the year amid a busy political calendar. The dissolution of the lower house on January 23 has set the stage for early legislative elections on February 8. Economic issues – particularly inflation – feature prominently in the campaign. Although headline inflation stands at a moderate 2.1% over the 12 months to December, some essential goods, including rice, are still rising by more than 30%.
Over the past 18 months, MSCI Europe Quality Index stocks have underperformed the market average. These quality stocks include companies from various sectors (notably pharmaceuticals, industrials, consumer goods, and technology) and are typically characterized by high returns on capital, low leverage, and more stable earnings.
At the top of President Trump’s agenda is the flow of foreign workers into the United States, which has accelerated since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. Foreign-born workers in the United States account for almost a fifth of the total workforce.
Like Canada and the United Kingdom, the Eurozone benefited in the first quarter from an increase in U.S. imports driven by anticipation of higher tariffs. Since April, however, this trend has reversed, leading to a decline in European exports.
With the US unemployment rate holding steady at a historically low 4.2%, job creation remains strong. In May alone, nearly 140,000 jobs were added in the non-farm private sector, enough to keep unemployment from rising. However, households are increasingly worried about the state of the labor market.
Over the past three years, the high-yield segment of the fixed income market has enjoyed a supportive backdrop. As of October 15, 2025, euro-denominated high yield bonds - across all maturities and ratings - delivered a cumulative three-year return of +33.4%, while maintaining relatively low volatility.
Since 2022, following the seizure of Russian assets, central banks – particularly those in emerging markets – have increased their gold purchases to reduce the dominance of the U.S. dollar in their reserves.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey includes questions on inflation expectations. In February, following a sharp decline since 2022, the survey revealed that consumers expect price rises to reach 6% over the next 12 months.
Bulgaria will become the 21st member of the Eurozone on January 1, 2026. The country will replace the lev, which has been pegged to the euro at 1.95 BGN per 1 EUR for 25 years.
Since the beginning of February 2025, some tensions have emerged in European bond markets. On 5 March, benchmark rates notably surged following Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement of the €800 billion ‘ReArm Europe’ plan.
On September 17, the Fed lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it back to the 4.00-4.25% range. The US central bank thus resumed its rate cuts after a nine-month pause, with the previous move having taken place in December 2024.
Companies with small market capitalisations have a track record of outperforming larger caps during central bank rate-cutting cycles.
While the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of the year, economic data from July and August painted a more concerning picture, with most indicators showing signs of weakness.
In February 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict led to a sharp rise in energy prices (oil, natural gas), which contributed decisively to the inflationary shock observed a few months later in the eurozone (+10.6% over 12 months in October 2022). This shock hurt the profitability of industrial companies and placed considerable pressure on the budgets of both consumers and local authorities.
As of November 30, 2025, the European high-yield segment is up 4.9%, on track for a third consecutive year of gains after returns of 8.5% in 2024 and 12.1% in 2023.
This week, the pharmaceutical sector saw a sharp rebound in the stock market, with several U.S. and European names gaining around 10%.
In 2024, US equities significantly outperformed other market segments. Since the end of February, the trend has reversed.
The U.S. residential real estate market is navigating through a challenging period. The latest NAHB Housing Market Index reveals a further decline in builder confidence, hitting its lowest point since December 2022. Additionally, building permits for single-family homes have dropped by 7% over the past two months.
The UK unemployment rate reached 5.0% in September, its highest level since 2021. This week, activity data also showed weaker-than-expected growth in the third quarter and a slowdown in September.
The end of the U.S. government shutdown has allowed the gradual resumption of economic data releases. September’s employment report, originally scheduled for early October, was finally published on November 20.
German industrial production slumped 2.4% in December to end 2024 on a weak footing. While calendar effects were at play, the decline was driven by a fall in output from the car industry.
The cascade of tariff hike announcements has had an almost immediate impact on firms’ and households’ inflation expectations. Firms report that they could raise prices in response to increasing costs.
À l’issue de sa réunion du 29 octobre, la Fed a annoncé une baisse de son taux directeur de 25 points de base, mais aussi la fin de son « Quantitative Tightening » à partir du 1er décembre 2025.
After experiencing significant volatility and a downturn in March and April, European bond markets managed to regain positive momentum in just a few weeks. Year-to-date, Investment Grade, High Yield, and AT1 subordinated debt have all delivered positive performances for 2025, with spreads now returning to their levels from early January.
Recent political developments in France have been reflected in fixed-income markets through the widening spread between French and German bond yields. This trend highlights investors’ demand for higher returns to compensate for holding French debt instead of German debt.
Since the beginning of the year, the ECB has cut its key interest rates four times, bringing its deposit rate down to 2%, compared with 3% at the end of 2024. Reflecting these adjustments, the €STR -which serves as the key money market benchmark – has returned to 1.9% and could continue to fall: the market is still anticipating a final rate cut by the ECB before the end of the year.
Although Ireland makes up about 4% of the Eurozone’s total GDP, it accounted for more than half of the region’s growth in the first quarter of 2025. With a striking 9.7% increase GDP, Ireland alone contributed over 0.3 percentage points to the Eurozone’s total growth of 0.6%.
Since 2018, European small caps have significantly underperformed large caps. By the end of April 2025, they were trading at a record discount of around 20% compared to large caps. This is striking as small caps have historically traded at a premium to large caps.
Since the beginning of the year, the banking sector has achieved strong performance. As of September 11, the Euro Stoxx Banks index was up 59.22% YTD (excluding dividends), making it the top-performing sector in the European stock market in 2025.
A few weeks later than expected, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimate of U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025.
The military intervention in Iran had a significant impact on markets this week, including fixed income.
The conflict in Iran has taken a new turn in recent days, with strikes on several oil facilities and Iran’s stated intention to block the Strait of Hormuz, driving up oil prices.
Since 2025 , major US companies associated with AI development, commonly referred to as “hyperscalers”, have become significant issuers in the euro-denominated bond market .
This week, the Topix reached a new all‑time high, crossing the symbolic 4,000‑point mark during the June 3 trading session.
European luxury stocks have significantly underperformed over the past two years, declining by roughly 20% over the last 24 months, while the Euro Stoxx index has gained around 30%.
In September, the ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 bps for the second time this year, bringing its deposit rate to 2.50%.
Since last year, earnings expectations for MSCI Europe companies have risen markedly. Expected earnings per share over the next 12 months have increased by 18% since April 2025, reaching an all-time high.
Since mid-July, Brent crude prices have rebounded by nearly $20 per barrel.
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/small-caps-30-01-2026/cover.gds.30.01.2025.png "Small caps: are the planets set to align?")
/73cd85c0-dfc6-432a-8732-f0f3ee333b7f-gemini-image-gen-img-g-t7dh79jhgbdqtyl3orh-825x510.png "US Hyperscalers Are Becoming Major Issuers in the Euro Bond Market")
/Design%20sans%20titre%20(41).png "Japan’s Stock Market Hits New Highs")
/luxury-stocks-8-05-2026/cover.gds.8.05.2026.png "Luxury Stocks: A Recovery on the Horizon ?")
/ecb-ahead-18-09-2026/cover.gds.18.09.2026%20(1).png "The ECB Gets Ahead of the Curve")
/mcsi-europe-companies-11-09-2026/cover.gds.11.09.2025.png "MSCI Europe Companies Have Entered a New Phase of Earnings Growth")
/fuel-prices-24-07-2026/cover.gds.24.07.2026.png "Fuel Prices: Refining Margins Rise Alongside Crude Oil")