In February, the U.S. household saving rate fell to 4.0%. Excluding 2022, which was marked by a rebound in consumption following the COVID-19 crisis, this is the lowest level recorded since the Great Financial Crisis of 2009.
Assuming constant consumption, the rise in fuel prices could reduce this saving rate by 0.4 percentage points in March and 0.7 percentage points in April, based on prices observed in early April.
Our analysis
A lower saving rate does not signal a slowdown in economic activity. On the contrary, it reflects consumption growing faster than households’ real disposable income. However, it also creates a degree of vulnerability by increasing the likelihood of a subsequent normalization.
Against a backdrop of slowing labor income growth for U.S. households, their response to higher energy prices will therefore warrant close attention. The shock could either be absorbed through a further decline in the saving rate or lead households to scale back spending in other areas.
Written on April 10, 2026. Opinions subject to change. This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION – a simplified joint stock company with share capital of €14,487,500 – Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES – 75008 PARIS, FRANC
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